Senin, 11 April 2016

Al Qaeda Digs In As Dust Settles On Yemen War


Among the ruins of ancient treasured buildings, the twisted remains of the victims of air strikes and the soiled reputation of international relations, it's often hard to find a winner in any civil war.

But as the dust begins to settle on Yemen's year-long conflict, the glint of white can be discerned through the fog of bloodshed – the white teeth of al Qaeda fighters.

A Saudi-led coalition of fellow Sunni Arab states launched air strikes and later a land campaign against Shia Houthi rebels in March last year.

They were officially coming to the aid of the internationally-recognised president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.

The Houthis sided with his (Sunni) predecessor, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and were seen as having the backing of Iran, the Shia theocracy and arch rival of the Sunni Arab dynasties.

The coalition saw the fight against the Houthis as essential.

Making up 35% of Yemen's population, the Houthis were seen as a potential threat along Saudi Arabia's southern border - much like the Hezbollah along Israel's northern frontier.

A new confidence among younger members of the Gulf Co-operation Council fed a belligerent mood and pride that (at last) Arab nations were taking control of their own destinies and not asking Americans to do their fighting for them.

But a year in, things have not gone so well.

The coalition has been blooded. The military performance of some units, led occasionally by Gulf royals, have gone some way to shaking off the caricature of the overweight and idle "Gulfie".

But human rights groups have been outraged by that they say has been the profligate disregard for civilian life shown by coalition war planes.

On top of that, Gulf allies, notable the UK and the US, have come in for bitter criticism for supplying bombs to the coalition.

British officials have been squirming about trying to come up with a credible moral explanation for the "six to ten" personnel the military have working in the Saudi targeting cell.

The Whitehall line is that they're there to train Saudi targeteers but have no access to battle damage assessments - without which no training would be possible.

This has all been awkward for governments keen to flog munitions to the Saudis.

Britain sold £1.75bn-worth in the first six months of last year. Western governments continue to stick to the notion (publicly anyway) that human rights matter.

More problematic, though, is that the war in Yemen has created more space for al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to operate.

This, remember, is the group behind the Charlie Hebdo massacres and numerous bomb plots.

Al Qaeda now has a significant presence across at least a quarter of central Yemen, and control of Makallah Port which generates $2m a day in revenues.

It controls about 370 miles of Yemen's coastline and has begun raising taxes to fill coffers already gorged with $100m in looted bank cash.

This is the first time al Qaeda has controlled and administered territory on this scale – a victory delivered thanks to a war against someone else.

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